As you well know, the 2020 general elections didn’t exactly go as planned for Democrats. While they did manage to win the White House and gain control of the Senate, albeit, by the very thinnest of margins, they lost big time in the House of Representatives. In fact, thanks to their massive losses there, they have just barely managed to hang on to their control of that house.
And by the way, things are looking for 2022, that margin will get even smaller, if not be entirely overtaken by red seats.
No, I’m not just talking about constituents choosing Republicans over Democrats either, although, as I’ll get more into later, that’s definitely a possibility.
Instead, a great majority of their losses will occur due to population shifts.
If your education was somewhat lacking when it came to civic duties and how our government works, or if you just don’t remember, let me explain.
While every American state is given precisely two senators, the number of representatives for the Lower house is dependent on how many people live in that state – the more people, the more representatives.
And according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which just released their first set of results from the 2020 census, seven states are set to lose seats in the House of Representatives while another six will gain.
The seven losing states, each of which will only lose one seat, are California, Illinois, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and West Virginia.
As for the states who are gaining, these include Texas (which actually will gain two seats), Montana, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Oregon.
Notice a trend here? Let’s say it’s not good for Democrats, both in regards to House seats and votes in the Electoral College, which is determined by House seats.
As Dan McLaughlin at National Review noted, “States won by Donald Trump in 2020 gained five electoral votes and lost two, for a net gain of three. States won by Joe Biden in 2020 were the opposite – five losses, two gains. Moreover, the shift from the trio of midwestern states that made Trump and Biden president (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan) to Texas and Florida is probably good news for a candidate such as Ron DeSantis who can build a home base in those states.”
So what has populations shifting so much to the South and West?
Well, according to Election Data Services, this has been an ongoing trend for some time now. Since the 1940s, to be exact. And this is actually one of the smaller shifts to be observed.
In fact, according to estimates made before the census was taken, Election Data Services thought that Texas could gain as many as three seats, Florida would gain two. Both New York and California were expected to lose two.
Needless to say, it’s still not something Democrats should be proud of – and maybe something they should be learning from.
I mean, how do massively populated states like California and New York, given that populations in the U.S. are rising and not dropping, lose so many people in a short span of time that they lose congressional seats?
The answer is quite simple: Bad management and state leadership.
According to USA Today, before COVID, New York lost 126,355 citizens between 2019 and 2020. Similarly, Illinois lost 79,487, and California shed 69,532. Meanwhile, Florida gained a whopping 241,256 residents, and Texas added 373,965.
And this trend goes all the way back to 2010.
Don’t tell that all those people moved just to enjoy warmer weather either… Nor are they all moving to the country. I don’t know if you’ve noticed by Texas has some pretty massive cities, and Florida isn’t exactly known for its wide-open spaces.
So what do red states like Texas and Florida have that New York, Illinois, and Cali don’t?
Well, a lower cost of living for starters, plus lower taxes, less crime, and fewer homeless. Note that these are all issues that are dependent on leadership. And obviously, Democrat leaders in those states are doing a poor job of taking care of those who live there.
No wonder people are fleeing en masse. And if they don’t change their ways, the exodus is likely to only continue, giving more seats to states with a much higher likelihood of voting red over blue.