If you haven’t heard, rumors are swirling that the current Democratic presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., will soon make the switch to an independent White House run. And that could be quite devastating to incumbent Joe Biden.
As you know, Biden is by far the leading contender in his party. Running a not-so-close second is RFK Jr. But should the latter change his party to Libertarian, it could change everything.
True, Biden will still lead his party.
However, the switch is likely to pull a good number of Democrats from voting blue.
According to a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, in fact, a whopping 33 percent of Democrats could be influenced to vote for RFK rather than Biden. And if that wasn’t bad enough, another 14 percent said that the likelihood of them voting for RFK over Biden would increase.
Now, of course, some Republicans and Never Trumpers would also pick Kennedy over Trump. Rassmussen’s survey says about 14 percent of GOP voters and 28 percent of unaffiliated voters were somewhat likely to pick Kennedy if he made a third-party run.
It is noted that overall, 25 percent of voters said it was somewhat likely they would choose Kennedy over their party’s leading contender.
Clearly, this means that RFK could be dangerous to both Trump and Biden. But it’s also clear the danger is worse for Democrats and Biden, seeing as 33 percent (versus 14 percent) of Dems would likely vote for RFK.
This is especially interesting because more Republicans than Democrats actually view RFK favorably.
According to the survey, 56 percent of GOP voters view him as at least somewhat favorable to 41 percent of Democrats. Forty-nine percent of unaffiliated voters see Kennedy as favorable.
Naturally, the fear here is that as Biden continues to lose his grip on reality, a third party run by RFK could indeed pull more and more Democrats from voting for the incumbent. And while it might not be enough to ensure a Kennedy win, it might be enough to put Trump back in the White House.
The New York Times reported, “In a general election, Democrats worry that a third party run by Mr. Kennedy could draw votes away from Mr. Biden and help elect former President Donald J. Trump.”
Matt Bennett, centrist Democrat group Third Way co-founder, told the Times, “We’ve been very clear that third parties in close elections can be very dangerous and would almost certainly hurt the President.”
If this happens, this would hurt Biden infinitely more than Trump. And given the margin of error in recent presidential elections, it could be a decisive blow to the incumbent: https://t.co/EyN0r2cSRr
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) September 29, 2023
Ross Perot’s third-party run against incumbent President George H.W. Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton proved just that. Perot only received about 18.9 percent of the popular vote and won no single state. However, it is believed that most of the votes he did garner would have possibly gone to Bush, allowing him to win.
And since they didn’t, Clinton won.
The same thing could happen in 2024, especially if the race is even remotely close.
In fact, according to 2020 voting results, all Trump would need to win were for Kennedy to pull a measly one or two percent of the vote from Biden in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. And Trump would be in like Flynn.
It’s also been suggested that RFK’s third-party announcement, expected to be made on October 9, could encourage Biden to drop out of the race altogether. Even without such a switch, there are rumors of Biden doing so.
Suffice it to say that October 9 could be the nail in the coffin for Bidens’ presidency dreams.