What if the Polls Are Wrong? Polymarket Says So…

Ben Von Klemperer / shutterstock.com
Ben Von Klemperer / shutterstock.com

When it comes to guessing how elections will go, polling is always a good resource, although it’s not always precise. Another source is by following the money…

In this case, it means following whose name people are willing to put their hard-earned cash towards in a bet. Enter Polymarket, billed as the “world’s largest prediction market.”

As of Wednesday, the online betting platform sees former President Donald Trump with a 56 percent chance of winning the November election, whereas incumbent president Joe Biden only has a 37 percent chance.

But, if you didn’t already know, this is vastly different from what polls throughout the nation are saying.

RealClearPolling, for instance, shows that in a head-to-head matchup, Trump still wins, but only by 1.1 percent. That goes up to 1.8 percent when other names, such as RFK Jr., are added into the mix.

So why the difference?

Well, something about putting money into something tends to answer more realistically, even if it’s only a small bit of money.

According to Polymarket, the idea of odds-making is naturally to have roughly an equal number of bettors on each side. But people were willing to pay more to be on Trump’s side than they were on Bidens.

In order to win $1 on the Trump side, bettors had to wager 57 cents. In contrast, bettors only had to wager 37 cents to win $1 for Biden to win.

So Polymarket was essentially bribing bettors to wager on Biden… And that means that a Trump victory is fully expected and by a margin of nearly 20 percentage points.

It’s also interesting that bettors also think Trump will be convicted in the ongoing hush money trial taking place in New York. Polymarket’s results showed that 63 percent believe Trump will be found guilty.

Clearly, the two verdicts seem to be at odds. The majority of bettors think Trump will be convicted of a crime. Yet, the majority also thinks Trump will win in November…

However, in today’s age, with today’s Biden regime in place, it’s just par for the course.

And one more reason why it’s clear Biden isn’t winning any favors from the people by going after Trump. In fact, it’s only making the latter more popular.