President Donald Trump is set to meet South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Wednesday in what’s being described as a pivotal, high-stakes encounter at the White House—one with global implications. The sit-down comes just days after Trump accused South Africa of being “out of control” and turning a blind eye to what he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have called a campaign of violence and racial discrimination against White Afrikaner farmers.

Speaking aboard Air Force One on Friday, Trump doubled down on claims that Afrikaners—descendants of Dutch settlers—are being forced off their land and targeted with violence. Rubio went further on Sunday, warning that “all evidence indicates” these farmers are being treated brutally. The U.S. recently welcomed 50 Afrikaner refugees and is reportedly preparing for more.

Ramaphosa’s administration denies the genocide allegations. But the optics ahead of this meeting couldn’t be worse for the South African leader. His ambassador to Washington was expelled for calling Trump a “White supremacist,” his government has backed terror-linked groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and his party’s new land expropriation law—allowing seizure of land without compensation—has triggered global concern.

South Africa has also aligned itself with America’s top geopolitical foes, forming close trade and military partnerships with Iran, China, and Russia, and even launching a legal case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of genocide in Gaza.

Max Meizlish of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said plainly: “South Africa is hosting Hamas and Hezbollah, doing business with Iran’s IRGC, prosecuting Israel, and cozying up to Beijing and Moscow. These choices have consequences.”

The Trump administration has made clear this isn’t a routine diplomatic courtesy call. With Ramaphosa arriving alongside four senior ministers and a pitch for U.S. investment, natural gas deals, and licensing for Elon Musk’s Starlink internet service, Trump is expected to demand real, structural changes in South Africa’s foreign policy. Targeted sanctions and tariffs are reportedly on the table if no progress is made.

Former diplomat and South African journalist J. Brooks Spector predicts Ramaphosa will keep his cool, noting the South African leader has a long history of navigating tense negotiations—even with adversaries.

But there’s no mistaking that Ramaphosa needs this meeting to go well. His country faces over 30% unemployment and less than 1% GDP growth. According to analyst Frans Cronje, “Mr. Ramaphosa will be under great pressure to secure a deal.”

South Africa holds significant strategic importance to the U.S., including control over a key sea route linking the Indian and Atlantic Oceans and access to vast mineral wealth. But Meizlish warned against overlooking their current alignment with America’s enemies just for the sake of business.

Meanwhile, Rubio signaled some openness to a reset: “If there’s a willingness on their side to reset relations, obviously that’s something we’ll explore—but we do so with eyes wide open.”

Whether this meeting ends in breakthrough or breakdown remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Trump isn’t backing down. And for Ramaphosa, the cost of failure could be much more than a cold reception.