A bombshell new poll shows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with a commanding 19-point lead over Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic Senate primary in New York — a result that could signal a seismic shift in the future of the Democratic Party.
The survey, conducted by the left-leaning Data for Progress and first reported by Politico, found that 55% of likely Democratic primary voters backed or leaned toward supporting Ocasio-Cortez, compared to just 36% for Schumer. Only 9% of voters were undecided. The data reflects a growing frustration among the party’s far-left base and raises the possibility that the progressive firebrand may soon challenge one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington — and win.
Bill O’Reilly, a board member at the William F. Buckley Jr. Program at Yale (not to be confused with the former Fox News host), told the Daily Caller News Foundation that the writing may already be on the wall. “The New York left has been furious with Schumer for years, and time is finally catching up with him,” he said. “If poll numbers stay anywhere near where they are now, Senator Schumer might be headed to golf-cart Florida rather than to reelection in 2028.”
It’s not hard to see why the progressive wing is sharpening its knives. Schumer recently joined Republicans in advancing a Trump-backed spending bill, triggering outrage from left-wing activists, state Democrats, and prominent progressive figures. Democratic Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Glenn Ivey of Maryland are among those publicly calling for his resignation. Meanwhile, activist groups aligned with Ocasio-Cortez have been turning up the heat, calling for new leadership and a more aggressive progressive posture.
“This poll really does show that Democrats are united in just wanting to stand up, wanting to fight, wanting to see someone taking a stand for them,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress.
The poll also revealed what matters most to these primary voters: “threats to democracy” topped the list of concerns, followed closely by programs like Social Security and Medicare, and then inflation and the economy. It’s a clear sign that the left believes its message — and its messengers — aren’t being heard in the Democratic leadership.
It’s not just AOC’s numbers that should concern Schumer — it’s the direction of the party itself. Since Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 election and Republicans took both chambers of Congress, the Democratic Party has struggled to find its footing. Voter dissatisfaction is rising, the party’s approval ratings are falling, and even internal memos are admitting the obvious: Democrats are no longer seen as the party of the working class.
In a February memo, Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin lamented that Americans increasingly view the GOP as “the party of the working class and Democrats as the party of the elites.” Since then, Democrats have scrambled to recalibrate, launching a series of town halls aimed at winning back red-district voters — but so far with little to show for it.
It doesn’t help that Schumer’s old-guard approach to Washington deal-making increasingly grates on the energized younger base, especially as figures like AOC thrive on social media and carry clout far beyond the five boroughs. For many on the left, Ocasio-Cortez embodies the fight — against Trump, against corporate influence, and against the very system Schumer is seen to represent.
The poll of 767 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from March 26 to March 31 and carries a margin of error of ±4 points. That puts even the most optimistic interpretation for Schumer squarely in danger territory.
Neither Ocasio-Cortez’s office nor Schumer’s responded to requests for comment — but if these numbers hold, it won’t be long before they’re forced to speak out.
The race for 2028 may be years away, but the political earthquake has already started. The Democratic civil war is no longer theoretical — and if Schumer can’t stop the bleeding, AOC might just be the one to deliver the knockout blow.
