If history has taught us anything, it’s that polls should never be taken as absolute. However, it also doesn’t mean they should be ignored. And that’s turning out to be really good news for the presumptive GOP nominee, Donald Trump.
According to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, Trump leads in six out of seven of the most competitive states, also known as battleground or swing states.
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, Trump currently holds between a two and eight percentage point lead. This is the same on ballots that include third-party and independent candidates as well as those that only list Trump and Joe Biden.
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in six of the seven most competitive states in the 2024 election, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds. https://t.co/3pyGnzL2kO https://t.co/3pyGnzL2kO
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 3, 2024
The holdout is Wisconsin, where Biden leads by three points on a multiple-candidate ballot. When listed on a head-to-head ballot, though, the vote is tied.
Naturally, this doesn’t exactly bode well for Biden.
It’s been noted on a number of recent polls, this one included, that voters are growing increasingly concerned about Biden’s health and age, as well as the direction our economy is headed, which can be laid at Biden’s feet.
And while Trump may not be an actual favorite to some voters, he is now viewed somewhat as the lesser of two evils. After all, at least he can still remember where he’s at and why, unlike Biden. Of course, his successful record with the US economy, as well as our borders and immigration, don’t hurt either.
In particular, Biden is losing black, Hispanic, and young voters to Trump, who historically have been known to vote more Democratically. But for the reasons listed above, many are unwilling to put their trust in a man or a party that no longer seems to worry about their needs.
Even MSNBC has had to admit in recent weeks that Biden isn’t doing too well in most polls, even among Democrats.
Much of this has to do with his lower-than-average job performance ratings. In fact, negative views of his job so far outweigh the positive ones by at least 16 points in this poll. And in four of the battleground states, the negative outperforms the positive by 20 points.
In contrast, Trump only received an unfavorable job rating in one state: Arizona.
However, MSNBC does make a good point.
As a poll, this one and several other similar ones don’t necessarily mean Trump will beat Biden in any of these states. A lot can happen in the six months before the general election—a lot.
This is especially true should the everyday American’s viewpoint on the economy suddenly change before the November general election. Should the economy drastically improve, or at least our perception of it, it could very well sway just enough people back to Biden’s side.
Now, I don’t see that happening in time for Biden to turn this around. But, as we all know, anything is possible these days.
In any case, things are indeed looking good for Trump. Of course, this should not motivate the Republican Party to simply sit back and assume a victory. Instead, it should encourage us all the more to get out and do our part to ensure the voice of America is heard at the polls.
